For
the first time in years opinion polls indicate the possibility of Netanyahu’s
career coming to its end at the March elections, and also on the diplomatic
horizon the PM facec increasing storm warnings, with such headlines as: "Europe
said 'yes' to Palestine" / "A European Slap in the Face" /
"A Black Day for Israel in the Diplomatic Arena". In "Israel Today",
nicknamed "The Bibinews", the tone was especially excited: "An anti-Israeli
European Blitz/ Fury in Israel: 'They have not learned a thing!'/ PM Netanyahu:
'Six Million Jews Were Slaughtered on The Soil of Europe, We Will Defend Our Country
Against Terrorism and Hypocrisy! '"
Conjuring
the memory of the Holocaust up in the context of the European Parliament’s recognition
of the State of Palestine did not sound very convincing even in Israel. And
giving notice of a personal boycott against the Swedish Foreign Minister, whose
government has recognized Palestine, did not seem a serious or credible
response; nor did the announcement of "reconsideration of relations with
Switzerland", in view of the sharp resolutions taken at the convention of countries
signatory to the Geneva Convention. And the decision this week of building several hundred more settlement housing units
in East Jerusalem, was only pouring more oil on the flames.
Labor
Party leader Yitzchak Herzog, for the
first time considered a serious contender in the Prime Ministerial race held
Netanyahu responsible “for the
diplomatic fiasco afflicting the State of Israel, on top of the economic
failure". And Avigdor Lieberman – Netanyahu’s Foreign Minister and until
recently his loyal partner - voiced a new tune, not unlike Herzog's words: "Netanyahu’s
status quo policy has failed. Without a
political agreement, Israel's relations with the European Union will
deteriorate, which will result in serious damage to our economy - look at
what's going on in Russia because of the EU sanctions. If we do not take the
initiative, we face a diplomatic tsunami".
Can
one give any credibility to Lieberman’s efforts of reinventing himself, move
away from the extreme right and become a centrist leader? That remains to be
seen. But what is remarkable is that this is what a shrewd and highly
experienced politician considers as the best way to promote his career.
Surprisingly,
the one who volunteered to give a bit of comfort to the harassed Prime Minister
was none other than Tzipi Livni, Herzog's partner who had just joined with
great fanfare the fight for the replacement of Netanyahu. Livni begged US
Secretary of State Kerry to postpone, until after the Israeli elections, the
crucial UN Security Council vote on the Palestinian draft resolution. She
asserted that the adoption of a UN resolution supporting the Palestinian aspirations for an end to the
occupation would help Netanyahu’ s elections campaign, enabling him to mobilize
public opinion on the basis of "The whole world is against us".
Is
it so? Tzipi Livni herself no doubt remembers the 1992 elections, when she was still a loyal member of the Likud
Party. During that elections campaign, PM Shamir got entangled in a public
confrontation with the US President, Bush the father- with the result that the voters
turned their backs on him and his party and brought Rabin to power. It is quite
possible that such a scenario would repeat itself if after all President Obama finds
the courage to confront Netanyahu - and Netanyahu's supporters on Capitol Hill
– precisely at elections time in Israel. Israeli voters may have lost all hope of
reaching peace with the Palestinians - but only a few of them would be willing
to watch with equanimity the loss of the American backing which had sustained Israel for so many years.
To
the Administration, however, Livni's words (and similar urgings by former
President Peres) were very welcome. There is no doubt that Obama and Kerry
would prefer to delay as much as possible the difficult decision between a veto,
which would lead to a confrontation with the Arab World - and a non-veto which
would lead to a turmoil on Capitol Hill. Secretary of State Kerry informed the gathered
European diplomats that the United States is determined to delay the UN vote
until after the elections in Israel.
Did
Livni win the gratitude of Netanyahu and his fellows? Well, not exactly. She actually got torrents of abuse and
condemnation, and it was the right-wingers who condemned her approach to the Americans
as "an act of diplomatic subversion"...
So,
the Americans are determined to wait until after the elections in Israel - but
will the Palestinians cooperate? There was a time when Palestinians used to give
much consideration to changes and upheavals in the Israeli political system,
but nowadays they don’t have a lot of expectations that elections in Israel
will yield a better government than the one presently holding power. In any
case, many Palestinians are skeptical about President Abbas’ international initiative,
and his agreeing to freeze this initiative until mid-March would greatly
increase its lack of credibility.
The
very unpopular decision to continue maintaining security cooperation with
Israel, also after the death of Minister Ziad Abu Ein – killed during the dispersal
of a peaceful demonstration by Israeli soldiers - leaves Abbas no option but to forge forward
with his diplomatic offensive. Therefore, it is most likely that immediately
after 1 January - when the composition of the UN Security Council changes and
more countries supporting the Palestinian positions gain membership – the draft
resolution will come to a vote and President Obama will be forced to take a
stand, one way or another.
Saeb
Erekat, the eternal Chief Negotiator of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO,
explained the reasons for the Palestinians’ determination to go on with their diplomatic
initiative: " More than 20 years after the beginning of the negotiations,
Israel, the occupying power, has continued its illegal colonization enterprise
and relentless violations of the human rights of the Palestinian people. Over
that period of time the number of settlers has almost tripled and the
settlement infrastructure has continued to grow. At the same time Israel's
illegal siege on Gaza continues through various measures of collective
punishment. The deterioration has been dramatic and this initiative at the
Security Council is an effort to redress this situation by reaffirming the
rights of the Palestinian people, reaffirming the parameters of a just and
lasting solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and mobilizing the
international community to uphold its responsibilities and to salvage the
two-State solution and the prospects for peace”.
The
Palestinian street does not hold high expectations from the international
community and expects even from whatever government will be formed in Israel.
More and more young people - most of them "loners" who do not belong
to any organization and therefore it is hard for Israel's security services to find
them – have come to the conclusion that the only way to get their people free is
to take up arms. Last night there was another such case, near the settlement of
El-Matan in the northern West Bank. Ayala Shapira, an 11-year old girl, was hit
by a Molotov cocktail thrown from an ambush at the car in which she was traveling
with her father. She managed to jump out of the burning car and was taken to
hospital in a critical condition, suffering from severe burns to her upper body
and face. Even if the doctors manage to save her life, she can be expected to undergo a long and painful
rehabilitation process. Evidently she would never again look like the smiling
photo prominently published in today’s newspapers this morning, and it would take
a long time before she could again attend the enhanced Mathematics Class for Gifted
Children.
The
El-Matan settlement was established in 2000, officially defined as “a
neighborhood " of the older settlement of Ma'ale Shomron; therefore, the road
connecting Ma'ale Shomron to El-Matan – where the Molotov was thrown - is
considered by the settlers as “an internal artery of Ma'ale Shomron". El-Matan
was established without any authorization from the Ministry of Defense or any
other government agency, a blatantly illegally act even according to the highly
permissive rules of the Israeli military government. It was one of the illegal settlement
outposts which PM Sharon was supposed to evacuate, back in 2003 (so he promised
...) On the same year that Sharon pledged to the Americans to evacuate El-Matan,
the child Ayala Shapira was born there.
The
definition of El-Matan as an illegal settlement outpost was until yesterday no
hindrance in the life of the girl and her family - especially as the government
of Israel did not show even the slightest inclination to evacuate it – on the
contrary, the government transferred ample funds to finance its continuing growth. In 2012 the idea was raised of legalizing
El-Matan by defining it as “an artists’ colony" (though its inhabitants
are not artists…) At the time the idea sparked sharp protests in Israel and
abroad ("The settlers make the task of giving legitimacy to outposts into
a real art. What kind of art can flourish in a manifestly illegal outpost?"
Asked Peace Now’s Yariv Oppenheimer). Now, when the front pages filled with
reports about the calamity which struck Ayala Shapira and her family, this idea might
surface again.
"This
was not the act of a criminal. We are at war and the one who threw the Molotov
cocktail is a soldier among those who fight against us" is how Avner
Shapira, the girl's father, is quoted in
today’s papers. In this much one can certainly agree with him - even if
disagreeing with his further remarks regarding "total impossibility of
ever reaching peace" and “the need to conduct all-out war against the
terrorists".
Earlier
this week, another front of the same war heated up several times - the border of the Gaza Strip, still bleeding
from the harsh summer. A missile was shot from the Gaza Strip into Israel and
caused no damage or casualties, and a few days later a Palestinian sniper shot
and wounded an Israeli soldier near the border fence. In both cases, Hamas
denied any connection to the acts, attributed them to rogue organizations and
announced its determination to maintain the ceasefire. In both cases the
Israeli government and its armed forces placed responsibility upon Hamas and took
punitive measures accordingly - the bombing of a concrete-producing plant in
the first case, the killing of an important Hamas operative in the second. In
both cases commentators repeated the same formulations: "Both sides,
Israel and Hamas, do not want to reach an all-out escalation - but they may be
drawn to into it against their will." Such formulations also appeared in
the press just before the flare-up in the summer, dubbed "Operation Protective
Edge" which ended with the razing of entire Gaza neighborhoods and the death of some 2100.
By
any measure, the war has left the Gaza Strip an open sore which no one is seriously
trying to treat. Only a fraction of the donations promised for reconstructing
Gaza arrived in practice, and only a trickle of building materials get past the
walls and barriers. The mechanism which was set up at the demand of Israel, under
which the United Nations must closely oversee the distribution of construction
materials "to avoid their getting into Hamas’ hands" has become a
constant source of black marketing and wild profiteering. An international
activist who was recently in Gaza told me that the price of a bag of cement in
Gaza has risen to four times more the price before the war - far beyond the
reach of many Gazans whose homes were destroyed.
Officially,
the Gaza Strip is under the authority of
the Ramallah-based "Palestinian Consensus Government". In practice,
except for a single highly publicized meeting which its ministers held in Gaza,
that government has no real presence in the Gaza Strip, and Hamas retains
de-facto power. It is highly uncertain whether President Abbas has any desire to embark on a struggle – certainly political,
possibly military as well - to achieve some tangible control over the Gaza
Strip or parts thereof.
The
fine talk about "An arrangement" aimed at achieving a fundamental
solution to the problems of Gaza was shelved, and the world's attention shifted
at record speed to other problems. The negotiations in Cairo were supposed to
give the Palestinians a forum where they could air all claims and grievances,
demand an end to the siege and even the opening of air and sea ports in Gaza.
During the war, Hamas leaders have expressed great doubt whether the Israeli
government would indeed conduct such negotiations (that was one of the main
reasons for prolongation of the fighting). These doubts proved completely
justified.
The
Cairo negotiations were cut off two days after opening. Instead, the Egyptian
President General Sisi – Netanyhau’s not-so-secret ally – hastened to tighten
the siege on Gaza from the Egyptian side. The Rafah Border Crossing was completely
shut down, on the grounds that Gazans were involved in attacks on the Egyptian
army in Sinai. Afterwards, the Egyptian army began an intensive operation to create
along the border with Gaza "a sterile area" half a kilometer wide
(later, extended to a full kilometer), which involved the destroying of hundreds
of homes and completely erasing entire neighborhoods in Rafah.
This
Egyptian campaign is strongly reminiscent - perhaps not coincidentally – of what
the Israeli General Yom Tov Samia tried to do when Israeli forces were in direct control on the other side of the same
border. Dozens of Palestinian homes were destroyed, with the declared intention
to create just such a sterile area. At the time there were a lot of
international protests, especially after the American activist Rachel Corrie gave
her life in the struggle against house demolitions in Rafah. But apparently,
the world opinion which made an outcry against the destruction of the homes of Palestinians
by an Israeli general proved ready to pass over the destruction of the homes of
Egypt citizens by an Egyptian dictator...
Roger
Cohen of the New York Times, who this week published his impressions from electioneering
Israel and bleeding Gaza, wrote: “A child of nine in Gaza has memories of three
wars in six years. The child may stand in the remains of the Shejaiya
neighborhood in eastern Gaza City, gazing at tangles of iron rods, mountains of
stone, jagged outcrops of masonry, and air thick with dust. The child may
wonder what force it is that wrought such destruction, so repetitively, and
why. It is safe to say that the adult this Palestinian child will one day
become does not bode well for Israel. The child has no need for indoctrination
in hatred.”
This
week, the Egyptian government graciously announced the opening of the Rafah Crossing,
after two months in which it was completely closed. The opening was limited to
two days, and the only ones allowed to leave the Gaza Strip were residents with
a health emergency, students enrolled in universities abroad, and Palestinians holding
foreign citizenship. Those who fulfilled one of these criteria crowded the
crossing in great droves, anxious to get out before it would close again.
Representatives of the Egyptian government announced that a regular opening of
the crossing must wait for some undefined future date, "according to security
considerations." On this matter, Netanyahu could smile. At least
officially, he bears no responsibility.
In
the pressure cooker called Gaza, the pressure continues to mount.
Crowding at Rafah Crossing - photo AFP
On
December 29, 2014, the Geneva Initiative will hold a conference at Sderot, on
the Gaza border: “A Ticking Bomb Called Gaza: What's In Store for Inhabitants
of South Israel?"
Speakers:
* Gen. (res.) Israela Oron, former Deputy Head
of the National Security Council
*
Gen. (res.) Giora Inbar, former commander of the Lebanon Border Brigade and the Givati Brigade
*
Mr. Hisham Abd al-Razzaq, a Gaza resident, former Minister of Prisoners'
Affairs in the Palestinian Authority
The
conference will be held at the Sapir College, on Monday Dec. 29, starting at
17:30
Contact:
+972-3-6938780
